>> welcome to this latest edition of "quadriga." this week, we are talking about developments in turkey among fears that president tayyip one-manis creating a state. the german chancellor has been in istanbul, expressing what she calls s her deep concern about turkey''s commitment to democracy. in the meanwhile, the rest of europe are increasingly dependent on erdogan.

as the turkish leader has threatened to scrap a deal about migrants. the topic, is erdogan our friend? to discuss the question, i am excellentthree observers. beginning with maximilian popp who is a turkey expert. he says the refefugee deaeal is wrong. refugees of their rights. also with us is andreas kluth of the economist and he believes the only thing worse than sticking to the deal is not sticking with the deal. turkish journalist.

i'd like to be in with you. i'd like to begin with ongoing merkel's visit to istanbul -- angela merkel's visit to the stumble. she spoke to members of civil society. i wonder what impact those kind of initiatives have in turkey? is anybody listening? deger: i have seen almost no article on the meeting about civil society. host: censorship? deger: i guess the press wasn't invited to the press conference. she wanted to get the message to the german media. a colleague of ours wrote an article where merkel said it is not up to her to fight for democracy in turkey.

it is the duty of the turkish people to do that. course, it is important and it was expected from the pro-eu circles in turkey that that eu politicians would do something to support them. it is not merkel who is going to change turkish politics. meetingiscussed at that and welcome that she at least met civil society members. host: what do you say about that? people get angry when erdogan intervenes in german politics. maximilian: i don't to get would help the turks much. i don't think an intervention from the german chancellor wilil changege the human rights situation. no intervention in the past is going -- pleaded at t her in the past -- no intervention in the

better.de it tha you see people getting uncomfortable with merkel being so quiet about human righghts violations. host: when people feel that discomfofort, it i is because at of politicians have been saying mr. erdogan has autocratic ambitions. do you share that view? andreas: i think there are tendencies, definitely. i feel uncomfortable myself about the discomfort of the people when we speak about turkey. we care so much about like the way merkel talks to erdogan. we talk so much about the question about whether merkel is in the hands of erdogan. but we talk about too little is

the situation of the refugees and the consequences the deal has for refugees. doubleuffel standards -- standards. when we talk about president erdogan, people in germany 10 to act as if he is a despot. what is his perspective? rdogan? andreas: in a few senses he reminds me of vladimir putin to read even characters in german domestic politics. his relationship, his view on us in germany, over the past year is i think he felt hurt and humiliated. like a child almost, psychologicacally, that is how i view him. as putinin as well.

he felt rejected it and he feels it is up to himself that he can take revenge. specifically when angela merkel iname chancellor, she -- contrast to her predecessor, she gave turkey the cold shoulder. in rejecting their ambition to join the eu. was notcorrect, erdogan an autumn on autocratic want to autocrat wannabe that he is today. part of the explanation is as simple as that. host: we are talking about whether erdogan is a friend of germany's. whether he should be. whether we should be engaging in the refugee deal. what you make of that analysis? deger: i agree.

turkey, when you look at and the eu, the reform process started in 1999, there was a consensus between different groups and ideologies. goal. was a common you had less dispute. erdogan came into power in that time. they all agreed on the common goals. it was a huge mistake by merkel, i guess, when we look at that time now. i don't think erdogan forgives her. we know he feels betrayed. he is disappointed and doesn't trust merkel. we can see that merkel knows it because of the statement she made lately. words, deepes some

discussions based on confidence. words,u elaborate on the that means there is a lack of confidence. she is trying to explain she is open to discussion. post: when we talk about turkish membership in the eu, there is a critic that says turkey is pretending. the eu is pretending. is that a fair a analysis? it is a missed a chance. if we look back to these days, decisionfrom now, t the of m merkel at 2005 4 2006 to tn away from turkey, to only speak aboutt this prprivileged partnership, we will remember it as one of the crucial

foreign-policy mistakes of her chancellorship. t: let's go back to turkey itself. the country is coming under pressure from the president. >> the presidential system is a request. to the systemse the country finds itself in. anyone who doesn't agree is going to pay the price. when the ousted prime minister grew to independent -- too independent, erdogan showed him the door and replaced him with a more loyal lieutenant. he has also taken a hard line

with the opposition. opponents have been stripped of parliamentary immunity. erdogan use all kurdish politicians as terrorists. the turkish press is forced to remain silent. u up in court. is turkey on the road to dictatorship? host: is a question we have to talk about. you have been on the s show oftn have reflected on this. is he moving towards becoming a dictator? andreas: i think he is. the word dictator comes from rome. i wrote an essay on how populism, which also originated in rome, produces little caesars. he is one of the people we see a lot of. trump would like to be a little

caesar if he could. it is part of a trend. after his perceived rejection, he decided like prudent to turn away from the west that rejected eo-ottoman,ld a n regain a certain standining. just asng in the past, putin removes opponents. that has always meant you were trying to become a dictator. the question is how far his society will let him. host: the prime minister was recently forced to resign. tell me what that tells us about turkey, about mr. erdogan. maximilian: the performance was not that bad. he was a loyalist. host: he had become too

prominent? maximilianan: and maybe too successful. it was right after the eu announced the visa liberalization was on track that he was removed. this was like the biggest success in his whole foreign-policy career. a few hours after that, he is out. int shows there is no place turkish politics for a second man next to mr. erdogan. host: perhaps a one-man stateten the making. at the beginning of the short report, there was an trysting statement -- interesting said the from erdogan situation demands the of a presidential system. what situation and might he be talking about? deger: he usually talks about,

you know terror threats. he talks a lot about terror. it is really well-known, eu bashing. western bashing. rhetoriric that we know. you talk to people in turkey, you ask questions. yeah, the westerners. they don't want us to live peacefully. they support terror. it doesn't just count what what theays, i it counts party members communicate. there is a fear in society that turkey is left alone. yes, turkey is left alone and isolated. lots ofst of --

intellectuals have been calling on europe to send a signal. when is enough enough? the red line think has been crossed. even before e the refugee deala. the developments are disturbing. whether it wowould help to offificially announced a redline. we saw what that meant in syria when obama declared a redline. i'm not sure how much they help in politics. before, the troubling the toolsor europe, to intervene in turkey, to put pressure on the turkish government are very little. they are in a position where they can only watch. theeas: i agree and i think talk about red lines in this

conflict is naive. redline and then what? what would you propose the west do? he finds himself in a difficult neighborhood. what is he trying to do? i find it shortsighted. i think he is driven more by psychology than strategic thinking. where is he trying to take turkey? i think he would like to bececoe the suntoman leader of ni world. but he is picking fights with everyone. to become the powerful person he wants to be, he has to find a lie somewhere. -- allies somewhere. that.not doing i see there is a limit to his ambition at some point. host: turkey very isolated, lost a lot of friends. have any dialogue

with any other leader other than merkel. host: that is the ironic point. alternative?s the if you defineappen redlines? i don't think that is a solution to anything. i read an article on the policy related to russia. it is a selective engagement. when you look at what is going on between turkey and the eu, it is selective engagement. to be realistic, turkey and they u are cooperating in fields where they have common interests and nothing else. andreas: what else would one do? doing business't with turkey.

-- we are doing business with turkey, the refugee dealal maximilian, you have called it a farce. maximilian: we are doing dirty deals. the problem is the refugees have toto pay the price. the highest price is paid by the refugees. that is more the fault of the europeans than turkey. it was promised, and promoted, the deal was promised and promoted as something that would create an alternative to illegal migration. the refugees wouldn't have to step on the boats anymore and crossed the edgy and -- cross the aegean. so far, there have been a few people resettled. already, there is trouble.

this is already the maximum number we can reach. this is not a credible, realistic alternative to illegal migration. the deal right now is outsourcing the responsibility for refugees to another country. europe has done that in the past. in libya. they are now doing it withh sudan. they are repeating the same thing with turkey. host: meanwhile, we are listening to what next million has to say, the german government has been arguing there is no alternative to the refugee deal. is that really true? rder external board an agency is patrolling the eastern mediterranean heavily. closed.an route is fences are a determinant.

the eu is considering plans to give funds to greece. that could help the greek government set up a functioning infrastructure to provide adequately for the influx of migrants. asylum applications could be processed at these new hotspots and applicants who are turned it down could be returned to their home countries from greece. u still need a refugee deal with turkey? question. maximilian says the deal is a farce. you said, the only thing worse then sticking to the deal is not sticking to it. andreas: at heart, the deal we have does represent outsourcing thee problem to that country jut outside our borders. host: out of sight and out of

mind. andreas: however, what is the alternative? outsourcing it to another member of the eu which is having a different crisis, greece. the mysystic pressure, she e got herself out for the time being because of something she did not want which was a solution that the balkan states shut their borders. that dried up the refugee flows. there was a spectre they would all congregate on greece. esbos and other islands would become refugee camps. she said, what is the next best optition in ththis real world? the only way she had, the only thing she had was to do a deal with turkey. sharelian: i still don't

this view. i'm troubled by the fact that we the saying that there are only two options. the europe offensive and the turkey deal. there is a third option, follow our laws. the european constitution, the german constitution, they state refugees have the right to apply for asylum. please, let's go back to this and work on a third way. solutions asese solutions. there must be another. andreas: the law is a problem. the quote is you can apply in europe, the first country get to. if you enforce the law, you return the problem to those countries in crisis.

maximilianan: that t is a regegn that you has to work on. it cannot be changed inin a wayt means no more refugees in europe. that is denying any responsibility. host: the refugee deal, what is the alternative? what is the best way to move forward? deger: i don't think there is an alternative. if the deal fails, it would have tremendous consequences on turkey germany relations. also, turkey would get more unpredictable than it is now. i fear the consequences. i don't think there is an alternative right now but i agree there should be alternatives respecting human rights. respecting refugee rights. at the look at it bilateral level between turkey eu, itmany and thae will work with changes.

october forit until the visa liberalization. both sides have accepted it. o erdogan willl put forward his own interests. merkel will do the same with her political ambitions. she will focus and elaborate on her ambitions. we will watch a very tense negotiations. they will talk, they will continue to talk. the tension will remain. andreas: we will have interesting timing.

theboat is berg -- interesting question is, let's say he does scuttle the deal. what will be refugees do then? they go where they expect success. whatat will l their next route ? everyone is looking for that. that is what is going to make the summer unstable. sober analysis. erdogan and autocrat? the way he governs the country is autocratic. host: should we be doing business? we do discussss withh autocrats, i have no problem with that. we have to set up a deal with refugees. give me your vision, your idea of where german turkish

relations are likely to go in the next couple of years. there are summoning people here in germany, good people with roots in turkey. is one of theis dramas we dodon't talk about muh righght now. it is why i agree, if the deal fafails, the consequences wiwile bad. because i think this is one of the last chances those two countries, the eu and also german turkish relations, they have. mistrust will the be even bigger and i think dark times ahead. host: dark times ahead. thank you. we have given you plenty of food for thought on relations between germany and turkey. come back next week. bye-bye.

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